Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Market Trading Activity Remains Weak [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, iron ore futures held up well. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 797, up 0.95% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills had average sales and limited inquiries. Market transaction sentiment was weak. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 800–806 yuan, up 5–7 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Hebei, the transaction price for PB fines was 813–825 yuan/mt, up 5–7 yuan/mt from yesterday.

Positive market sentiment drove futures to open higher. However, market reaction was muted, and futures fluctuated at highs. Last week's SMM shipping data showed global shipments increased slightly by 4.9%, while port arrivals fell slightly by 4.2%. Short-term supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating, keeping iron ore prices under pressure. However, with the start of the new year, production restrictions on steel mills have ended, and some blast furnaces have resumed production. Hot metal output is expected to rebound significantly, providing support for ore prices. In the short term, prices may continue to hold up well.